26 Mar 2009 News for NTIA/ITS HF Propagation Models (WINDOWS version) 26 Mar 2009 1. A change was made to VOACAP and ICEPAC in the MPROB parameter. MPROB is not the probability that multipath exists. It is rather the reliability of the next most reliable mode that lies within the multipath parameters on the SYSTEM card. When there are multiple modes avaliable, both VOACAP & ICEPAC calculate the Most Reliable Mode (MRM). This may not be the mode with the highest reliability or highest signal power. If two modes are close in reliability, a mode with fewer hops may be selected as the MRM. Thus, a 2F2 mode might be selected over a 3F2 mode. On the SYSTEM card, there are 2 parameters that are used to determine if multipath might exist. Multipath Power Tolerance (dB) is the maximum difference in signal power between modes to determine if multipath exists. Modes with signal power greater than this value below the MRM are examined. Previously, modes with higher signal power than the MRM could have been ignored because only modes within +/- this value were examined. Maximum tolerable time delay (milliseconds) is a value such that modes within this time delay of the MRM are not considered to cause multipath problems. Additionally, MPROB is only calculated using the "short path" model. Thus, if you use METHOD=30 (the suggested method), MPROB is only valid for distances less than 7000km. This is because METHOD=30 uses the short path model for distances <7000km and the long path model for distances >10000km. It interpolates between the two models in the 7000km to 10000km. If you use METHOD=20, MPROB is calculated for distances <10000km. If you use METHOD=22 (forced short path), MPROB is calculated for all distances. If you use METHOD=21 Iforced long path), MPROB is not calculated. This change does not affect any other parameter. Most users do not use MPROB as it does not tell you if multipath exists. That information is beyond the scope of these models and is reserved to The Almighty Spirit (as mentioned by Klaatu in The Day The Earth Stood Still). Sorry about that, but the original was such a good movie.